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Stage 5 Cross-Validation: Omissions and Fixes

Method

Compared Stage 2 note case IDs, numerical claims, and chapter conclusions against the new Stage 3 book-summary.md plus the three Stage 4 reports: report-deliberate.md, report-quantify.md, and report-system.md.

This rerun adds one explicit check that was missing in the earlier workflow: the reports must not only satisfy the external thinking-model lenses, but must also preserve the author's own knowledge sequence.

Stage 3 Coverage Check

  • book-summary.md now explains the book in the author's original order: why expectations matter, how markets value stocks, expectations infrastructure, competitive strategy, PIE, opportunity identification, buy/sell/hold, real options, economic categories, M&A, buybacks, and sources of opportunities.

  • book-summary.md separately lists the book's concepts, formulas, reusable procedures, and applicable boundaries, so the reader can understand what the book teaches before entering deliberate/quantify/system analysis.

  • The comprehensive overview.md now includes an "原书知识压缩版" section before the three model-based findings.

Important Omissions Found in the Earlier Reports

  • Chapter 3 value-factor examples were underrepresented: Goodyear mix shift, McDonald's investment efficiency, Mondelez working-capital efficiency, and threshold margin mechanics.

  • Chapter 4 competitive strategy framework needed clearer mapping from historical analysis to industry map, value pool, and firm-specific advantage.

  • Chapter 9 physical/service/knowledge categories were present conceptually, but specific operational examples such as Nasdaq cloud scaling, AOL/Yahoo obsolescence, AMD de-verticalization, Walgreens working-capital efficiency, and Paccar capital discipline needed stronger report coverage.

  • Chapter 10 deal-type success differences, Dow/Rohm and Haas, and postannouncement risk recalculation were less explicit than the notes.

  • Chapter 11 buyback signal hierarchy and completion-rate caveat were not sufficiently surfaced.

  • Chapter 12 management-transition and regulatory/lawsuit examples were summarized but not enough concrete evidence was present in the reports.

Fixes Applied

  • Generated book-summary.md as the new mandatory Stage 3 artifact.

  • Updated overview.md to include the original-book knowledge compression before the three analysis dimensions.

  • Added cross-validation supplements to report-deliberate.md, report-quantify.md, and report-system.md in the prior pass; those supplements remain valid and are now checked against book-summary.md.

  • Synced the regenerated public-facing files into docs/glossary/ai-reading/Expectations Investing/ for MkDocs preview.

Remaining Deliberate Non-Inclusions

  • Foreword and acknowledgments cases are preserved in Stage 2 notes but not emphasized in reports because they are provenance/context rather than core analytical claims.

  • Part divider files are preserved in notes but do not need report treatment beyond book structure.